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Bookies Betting: Value Betting Strategy

Source: Buston [2018371], thread t=16043531. Karma 2,091. 29 downvotes, community mixed.

The Core Idea

Torn's bookies sometimes offer better odds than real-world bookmakers on the same game. When Torn's odds are significantly higher, there's "value" in that bet, meaning you're statistically likely to profit over many bets.

This is called value betting and is a legitimate long-term strategy used by professional sports bettors.

The Formula

Variance % = (Torn Odds - Real Odds) / (Torn Odds - 1) x 100

Example: - Torn odds on a basketball game: 2.2 - bet365 real-world odds on same game: 1.6 - Variance = (2.2 - 1.6) / (2.2 - 1) x 100 = 50%

A 50% variance is extremely high value. Bet on this.

When to Bet

Only bet when variance > 20%. Below 20% the edge is too thin to reliably profit.

Practical Use

  1. Go to Torn bookies and note odds on an upcoming game
  2. Look up the same game on bet365 (or any major bookmaker)
  3. Calculate variance with the formula
  4. Bet only on games with 20%+ variance
  5. Track all bets in a spreadsheet

Honest Assessment

  • Author has 29 downvotes and controversy around them, but the strategy itself is mathematically sound
  • Variance betting DOES work over hundreds of bets. Short-term you can still lose.
  • NOT "billions" — more like supplemental income of a few million per day if you're diligent
  • Critical: Bankroll management — only bet a small % of your bankroll per bet. Even a 50% edge doesn't mean you win every time. A few losses in a row can wipe a bankroll if you bet too large per game.
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